The time has finally come for the last round of Sunday Regular Season games. To all of our sports betting freaks out there who have followed us this year… THANK YOU! It’s been a great first year and we’re looking forward to the playoffs. The thing about this weekend that is such a pain in the ass is the Bullshit that comes out of these Head Coaches mouths. Sometimes they are saying they will play the game to Win and at other times they are talking about how they will have their starters out by the end of the first quarter. Some teams have nothing to play for and others are still fighting for that last playoff spot. In terms of sports betting this makes it a crapshoot trying to predict with any confidence who will cover and who will pack it in after the first series or two. I’m only going to have 2-3 Money Picks and I’ll be the first to say I don’t even like calling them that on this Final Sunday. My advice is to proceed with caution and place smaller wagers on most games than you normally would. The Playoffs start next weekend and those games are much better to get a payday than this Sunday will be. With that said let’s get to the picks.

Money Picks

1. Jags +6.5 @ Texans

The Jags don’t have anything to play for other than to stay on track and keep there confidence going. The Texans have been a trouble spot for the Jags the past few years and they would like to finish 8-8 in Matt Schaub’s first season as starter. My guess is the Jags are going to show up and with a touchdown to spare I like them.

TAKE THE JAGS +7. Buy the half point up to +7

2. Bengals -2.5 @ Dolphins

Bengals have too much firepower in the Florida Sun and despite Bill Parcells watching from the booth the Dolphins are too scared to drum up a game plan.

TAKE THE BENGALS -2.5

That’s it for the Money Picks boys and girls. Here is the Rest of the Bunch!

1. Pats -13 @ Giants

As of this posting time the game has been decided and the Pats are now 16-0, though they did not cover. Final score 38-35! Congratulations to Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and the Pats on their perfect regular season. I’m so glad Brady has the TD record and not that other Manning guy from Indy.

2. Bills +8 @ Eagles

TAKE THE EAGLES -8

3. Panthers -2.5 @ Bucs

TAKE THE PANTHERS -2.5

4. Lions +5 @ Packers

TAKE THE PACKERS -5

5. Saints -1.5 @ Bears

TAKE THE SAINTS -1.5

6. Seahawks pick @ Falcons

TAKE THE FALCONS

7. 49ers +12 @ Browns

TAKE THE BROWNS -12

8. Cowboys +9 @ Redskins

TAKE THE COWBOYS +9

9. Steelers -3 @ Ravens

TAKE THE STEELERS -3

10. Vikings -3 @ Broncos

TAKE THE VIKINGS -3

11. Chargers -8.5 @ Raiders

TAKE THE CHARGERS -8.5

12. Rams +6 @ Cards

TAKE THE CARDS -6

13. Chiefs +6 @ Jets

TAKE THE CHIEFS +6

14. Titans -4.5 @ Colts

TAKE THE TITANS -4. If you are going to play the Titans buy the half point down to -4 otherwise I would take the points and play the Colts. I know I’m going against the grain on this one, but it’s just a gut feeling that the Colts will play many of their Defensive Players well into the 3rd quarter. I took the Colts when they were at +6 early in the week, but now that they are only getting 4.5 I would lean towards buying the points on the Titans and taking a chance they will cover by 4.

So there you go Freaks. Enjoy the Circus that will show up tomorrow, because you know there will be some crazy surprises!

Bet Ya–

ALIKAT

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091005azvsnaux06.jpgSo here we go sports betting fans - the first Sunday of the 2007 Season! Get your grill cleaned up and get out to the grocery store for brats, burgers, and booze!

Alikat, our resident sports betting expert chick, is going to give you a little breakdown of the teams playing, their respective lines, and whether or not she thinks you should place a bet on them. If she thinks it’s a good bet and calls it out, then those are the games we’re recording for the Hot Chicks Hot Picks season’s statistics or her “win/loss” column, if you will.

We’re still not quite sure what to do with her Saints pick on Thursday but since we’re girls, we might be taking the famous “how many guys have you been with?” approach, as in we’ll tell how many boyfriends we’ve had, NOT how many men we’ve hooked up with.

Okay - just a couple of quick notes as we begin the season:

1. Go easy the first few weeks of the season. This is the toughest part of the season as you are trying to gauge how good these teams actually are. This is the reason the pre-season is mostly meaningless. Nobody really knows what they have on their respective squads until you get into the games that count! It’s not uncommon to hang around the 40%-50% winning mark during the first month of the year. Trust me, it gets a little easier to decipher teams after a few weeks. With that being said, bet a little lighter than you will during October through January.

2. Play mostly underdogs! This is a golden rule throughout the season of most accomplished sports bettors. The early part of the year is when every team is trying to find their make up and defenses are usually ahead of offenses. The final scores usually come down to 3-4 points anyhow throughout the year so you should naturally be looking at going with more underdogs than favorites in the month of September. I do make exceptions for favorites with very good defenses, quarterbacks, a history of doing well against said team or in said stadium, and if the favorites are giving away no more than 3-4 points.

3. Study these games as closely as you can. I know not all of you have the whole DirecTv Sunday Ticket Package, but when you watch the games you do, watch closely to pick up nuances that the average sports fan is missing. Knowing your team’s nuances and offensive and defensive packages will only help you in your sports betting as the year rolls on.

With that said, here are my week one insights:

Broncos -3 at Bills

The Broncos had trouble with their defense during the pre-season, but Mike Shanahan is determined to get back to the top of the AFC. He’s got to rely on a second year quarterback in Jay Cutler who should get better as the year rolls on.

The Bills have some good offensive weapons in J.P. Losman and the rookie Marshawn Lynch but their defense can be overwhelmed. The Bills usually play very tough at home, but the Broncos know they have to keep pace early with the Chargers to have a chance at the AFC West Title.

This game could go either way with not enough evidence of either team being able to shut down somebody to put money on them.

If I had to pick I would go with the Broncos but it’s just not a good game to play in my opinion.

PASS

Eagles -3 at Packers

Donovan McNabb is back from his knee injury looking good during the summer games. I like the Philly D in this one going against Brett Favre and a very inexperienced running back crew. Favre just doesn’t know what he’s going to get from his running backs in this game what with all the wild blitzes the Philly D will throw at him.

On the other side, I think Philly could be looking past this game as they have owned Green Bay the last few years and have the Redskins coming to town next Sunday. The Pack have a pretty good D of their own and if they can stuff the running of Brian Westbrook and get a couple of big plays it’s a good chance they’ll win.

If I had to pick I’d go Eagles.

PASS

Falcons +3 at Vikings

Old Joey Harrington is going to take his first step in replacing Michael Vick at The Metrodome, a place he’s never played well. I think the Falcons will have a hard time putting up much yardage on the excellent Vikings run defense. They will have a few shots against the secondary if Joey gets some time in the pocket.

The Vikings will be able to run the ball very well against the Falcon D if QB Tavaris Jackson can complete a few passes early in the first half. If he stumbles, then it will take a big play by rookie RB Adrian Petersen to lift them out of their offensive woes dating back to last year’s squad.

If I had to pick I’d go Vikings.

PASS

Dolphins +3 at Redskins

The Dolphins will try to get their anemic offense back on track in Trent Green’s first start for his new team. I think Trent is on his way out with the concussion from last year still affecting his play. The running game of the Dolphins is okay at best with Ronnie “What have you done to deserve a #4 pick” Brown still waiting to bust out and become a stud.

The Redskins Defense looks like a better version than the strong one they had in 2005. It has the speed and ferocious hitting ability you like to see in the NFL. Quarterback Jason Campbell is a star waiting for his entrance and I think this is the year you’re going to see him blossom. He’s got two excellent running backs in Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts which always make life easier for a young QB.

Yeah, the Dolphins Defense is pretty damn good but it’s getting old and defensive end Jason Taylor topped out last year in his play.

PLAY ON THE REDSKINS AT -3!

If it moves to -3.5 PASS!

Titans +7 at Jaguars

Here comes the full-time David Garrard as starting QB experiment again. How did that work out for you last year Jack? Garrard is a back-up and a good one at that, but he’s not NFL Starter material for 16 games. The Jags are very tough at home early in the season and they have a great running game with Fred Taylor and Jones-Drew. The Titans are looking to continue their NFL best ATS record of 11-5 last year with an upset to start of 2007. The Titans still don’t have any big time receivers for Vince Young to throw to yet and he’s still going to have to make a bunch of plays with his legs. Lendale White should break out some in his second year at tailback if he can lay off the cheeseburgers during the week. I want to go with the Titans to stay within a few points of the Jags, but I just have not seen enough of their offense to make me feel good about that. On the other side, the thought of trusting any amount of money, when you are laying 7 points, in the hands of David Garrard is ridiculous. If I had to pick I’d go Titans +7 and only +7 but… PASS

Panthers +1 at Rams

This game is a complete toss-up and probably the hardest one to handicap. They both have very good offenses from time to time with the consistent edge going to the Rams. The Panthers have the better Defense although the Rams are hoping this is the year they start getting their own D in shape. QB edge I would go with Bulger and the Rams as well as being at home. John Fox does very well in the road underdog role though (insert story of coaches from a week ago). Just sit back and enjoy this game. If I had to pick I’d go Rams. PASS

Chiefs +3 at Texans

I liked this game back when it was Texans -1. I would have gone with the Texans as I think they are going to surprise a lot of people this year and score some upsets. The Chiefs are just not going to be very good this year despite having RB Larry Johnson. I see this game coming down to a big D stand or a field goal with seconds remaining. Either way I can’t trust my money with either of these two teams at this point spread. PASS

Steelers +4.5 at Browns

I like this game at Steelers +4 and nothing more. Therefore if you decide to play this game I would suggest you buy that 1/2 point and get it down to +4. The Steelers are due back this year with a defense that looked great during the pre-season and Ben wanting to get back to the Super Bowl again. The Steelers have won the last the last 7 games ATS vs the Browns including the last 4 at Cleveland. The Steelers have also won their last 4 season openers. The Browns will give them a good 1st half, but then I see them wearing down. Derek Anderson or Charlie Frye will make a key mistake against that blitzing D the Steelers bring late in the game to seal this game for the Steelers. PLAY ON STEELERS AT +4. BUY THE HALF POINT!

Patriots -6 at Jets

I usually like the Pats at anything under -7 points. This game in N.Y. though has given the Pats problems over the last couple of years. Without a Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour, and a totally healthy Randy Moss the Pats might struggle some to cover this spread. I don’t thing the Jets are going to win this game outright but I gotta feeling they may make it more uncomfortable than Pats fans would like. I still can’t go the other way and play the Jets because I don’t think RB Thomas Jones is completely healthy yet and QB Chad Pennington didn’t look good at all in the pre-season. If I had to pick I’d go with the Pats. PASS

Bucaneers -6 at Seahawks

The Bucs look to restore some shine to their organization after the last couple of years. The Seahawks are a veteran team that knows they only got another year or two to make another run at the Super Bowl. I like the Bucs to keep this close for awhile and with Jeff Garcia at QB you never know what might happen. The Seahawks look like they have improved some on the D-side of the ball and with a healthy Hasselback and Alexander in the backfield they should move the ball well at home. If this game was at -4 Seahawks I’d go with it. PASS

Bears +6 at Chargers

Norv Turner is back at Head Coach for the Chargers and that scares me as a sports betting analyst. He’s a good assistant, but not a Head kind of guy. The Bears have one of the best D’s in the whole league and I like them getting 6 points for a opening day game along with the fact they are 4-0 ATS vs the Chargers the last 4 meetings. If Rex can not make too many big mistakes, a BIG IF I KNOW, the Bears are simply too good on D to not keep this game close to the end. PLAY ON THE BEARS AT -6!

Lions +2.5 at Raiders

I liked this game much much better a week ago when you could get the Raiders at -1 to -1.5
I liked it even better when it looked like a sure thing that Daunte Culpepper had won the starting QB job in Oakland. I still don’t know what Lane Kiffin is thinking if he does indeed go with Josh McKown as his starter in week 1. I still have not been shown anything by these overhyped Lions and until they prove me wrong I’ll shoot my mouth off about them. At this spread I get real anxious though as the Raiders have shown an ability to lose ATS in games they should win over the last 3 years. I say… PASS NOT at this Point Spread!

Giants +6 at Cowboys

The Giants and Cowboys usually play each other very tough and this being an opening day game I expect the same. I would love to take the points and pick the Giants, but I don’t trust my money in the hands of Eli Manning at this time in his career. I don’t think the Cowboys can play a consistent enough game for four quarters to justify them covering by 6 points. If I had to play somebody here it would be the Giants, but… PASS

There are the Sunday match-ups boys and girls! I’ll be back Sunday Night with my Monday Night Special! Stay tuned!

Bet Ya–
ALIKAT

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Well it’s finally here!  The 2007 NFL Season starts off tonight with what should be a ton of fireworks on the field!  All you sports betting guys and gals get ready to ride the roller coaster of big plays and tremendous athleticism in the RCA Dome this evening.

The line on this game has been wavering between Colts -5 1/2 to -6.  Most sportsbooks are carrying the game at Colts -6.

The key match-ups in this game will be:

1. Can LT Tony Ugoh, in his first start, keep the pressure off of Manning’s blind side?

My feeling is he is going to have a tough time with the Saints DE’s Charles Grant and Will Smith.  The Saints will be using all sorts of stunts and blitzes to mess the kid up.

2. Can the Saints stop the Colts passing attack?

No, at least not enough to really take these guys out.  The Colts are going to score their usual 24-31 points in this game if Manning doesn’t get too much pressure from his blind side.  He has too many weapons and the Saints corners are not the best.  Although they did pick up CB Jason David from the Colts in the off-season, which may help give them some inside knowledge, I still see the Colts getting some big plays from their receivers.

3. Can the Colts stop the Saints offense?

No, again not enough to blow the Saints out.  The combination of Deuce and Reggie will have a field day against an over matched Colts defensive line.  The Saints have a huge O-Line and they will wear down the Colts as the game goes on providing big gains in the 4th quarter for Bush and McAllister.  The Colts lost both their starting CB’s from last year due to free agency.  The two newbies back there, Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden, are going to have a difficult time containing the passing attack of Drew Brees and Co.

4.  Who will get that Key Stop in the Red Zone?

This to me is where the outcome of the game will hinge. Whomever can come up with a big play or two inside the 25 yard line will win this game. Although the Saints Defense isn’t the greatest overall they have more big play starters back there than the Colts do.

5. So who wins?

I’m looking for a very close game with the outcome being determined by 3-4 points.  If the Saints control the clock with the running game and get pressure on Manning they will win Straight Up.  If the Colts exploit the flaws of the Saints secondary and get a big play from Safety Bob Sanders inside the 20 yard line they will take this game by a field goal.

Here’s the deal:

The Saints were 6-2 ATS on the Road last year.

Drew Brees beat the Colts at the RCA Dome a couple years back when he was with the Chargers.

The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Colts. The Colts had 11 games last year decided by 6 or fewer points.

Head Coach Sean Payton is 5-0 ATS as a Dog vs opponents with above .500 winning percentages.

So:

TAKE THE SAINTS AND THE 6 POINTS OVER THE COLTS!

It’s about frickin’ time for some football!

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It is one of my golden rules of sports betting that to win consistently, you must have very good coaches on your side. I know that the players make the game and coaches have to have talent to win, but you gotta know what to do with those big brawny men out there in tight pants. Often times, a coach does make a difference, for better or worse (see Tom Coughlin).

So, if you’re stuck on who to put your money on this season, use this list of the top 5 NFL Coaches Against the Spread (ATS) to help make your sports betting decisions lead to money week in and week out.

Brian Billick, 8 yrs. Head Coach, Ravens: Here’s the coach who you think should be running a Fortune 500 company rather than a football team. He loves to hear himself talk, can get a little arrogant from time to time, and for such an offensive genius, has had a hard time putting points on the board, but there is no mistaking it, he gets the job done. Here are his stats:

Home 39-24
Away 36-31
Fav 46-31
Dog 29-23
Off Win 42-34
*Off Loss 31-16

Best ATS Role: 10-2 vs opp off a straight up (SU) dog win

John Fox, 5 yrs. Head Coach, Panthers: Sure, some of his numbers aren’t that good but look at the stats when his team is on the road and/or underdogs. The Panthers come to play under Fox and you can make some money off of them in the right situations.

Home 17-23
*Away 29-15
Fav 19-27
*Dog 27-10
Off a Win 29-16
Off a Loss 17-18

Best ATS Role: 8-1 Dog off a SU favorite loss

belichick_bill5.jpgBill Belichick, 7 yrs. Head Coach, Patriots: This should come as no surprise to anyone. The Pats just win and win some more. I’ve been making money on the Pats and Brainy Bill ever since their first Super Bowl victory when they were 4-1 underdogs against the Rams. It’s no secret that Belichick prepares better than anyone in the league and has tremendous killer instinct, or what I like to call “alley guts” (I have a whole series of “alley” nouns - they usually have to do with scary people or things). Doesn’t hurt having Tom Brady either.

Home 35-24-3
Away 37-23-1
Fav 42-32-3
*Dog 29-16-1
Off a Win 48-32-3
Off a Loss 23-13

Best ATS Role: 14-3 Dog off a SU loss

andy-reid.jpgAndy Reid, 8 yrs. Head Coach, Eagles: I’d like to get some odds on when the next DUI or gun charge is going to be served to either of his two sons. Do you think they haven’t gotten enough attention from daddy over the past decade? Hmm…of course not! Daddy Reid has been too busy making money for the Eagles and us smart sports betting fans instead. Family is important but you gotta have your priorities.

Home 38-32
Away 43-25
Fav 46-37
*Dog 36-20
Off a Win 49-37
*Off a Loss 29-17

Best ATS Role: 12-1-1 dog off back-to-back (BB) SUATS wins

Jeff Fisher, 12 yrs. Head Coach, Titans: Fisher has had to ride out some tough times over the past several years but his Titans are at the beginning of a very good era again. Last year, they were an NFL leading 11-5 ATS and I think they’ll be close to that again this year. When you have a winner at quarterback like Vince Young (he did take down the mighty Trojans, remember) and the ability to connect with players like he does, good things happen and the money follows. Fisher isn’t too hot in a few categories but look for a couple that jump off the page and bet accordingly.

Home 51-48
Away 57-43
Fav 45-51
*Dog 60-36
Off a Win 56-47
Off a Loss 45-39
*Non Division opponents 61-44

Best ATS Role: 17-4 Road Dogs vs opp off SU loss

So there you have it boys and girls. These coaches all have consistency and the ability to keep winning over the long haul.

Some young coaches I am keeping an eye on this year are:

Mike Tomlin: He knows how to motivate and has that killer intensity (there goes those alley guts again).

Eric Mangini: Going into last season, he was known as the Mangina but at the end of the season, sharing the best ATS record of 11-5 with the Titans, he should be known as the Mangenius.

Mike Nolan: One of the sharpest minds and dressers of the NFL. He’s in his 3rd year and that’s when things get rolling for organizations.

Jack Del Rio: His teams play very well at home especially in the early part of the year.

Home 19-12
Dog 20-13
Best Role: 7-0 Home off BB SU losses

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If your money is on the line, always, always bet on Tom Brady.  I know - all you sports betting know-it-alls in the Midwest are screaming, “What the hell are you talking about?  Peyton Manning is the best.”

Not so fast there all you two minute pump chumps.  While Peyton finally did get his little doggy treat of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy last year, it still doesn’t erase the fact that it was his first and only big win at any level in his entire career.  I personally think last year’s playoffs for the Colts took on the look of their towel boy dropping acid in their opponents Gatorade!  I mean come on, the Ravens just don’t look like that at home and the Patriots don’t EVER BLOW LEADS like they did in the RCA Dome.

That all being said, I’m here to dismiss the idea that he’s the greatest quarterback of his generation, at least where sports betting is concerned (see, I haven’t entirely lost my mind). 

brady sensitiveIf you want to win money consistently, you will bet on Tom Brady much more often than Peyton Manning.  Brady’s middle name should be “I win money for sports betting fans.”  Big games, little games, division games, non-conference games it doesn’t matter.  His overall against the spread (ATS) record is as follows:

Home 32-18-3
Away 33-18-1
Favorite 42-27-3
Dog 22-11-1
Off a Win 46-29-3
Off a Loss 18-7
Best Role: Home Dog 6-1
Worst Role: Road Dog 15-10-1

manningNow compare those money making stats with Mr. Manning, the quarterback-cum-comedian’s, ATS record:

Home 26-27
Away 27-24-2
Favorite 44-38-1
Dog 9-11-1
Off a Win 38-32-1
Off a Loss 12-18
Best Role: Road favorite 17-11-1
Worst Role: Road Dog 9-11-1

While Peyton and the Colts may be fun to watch go up and down the field, when it comes to making money for you, the sports bettor, they just don’t give you enough of an edge to make consistent profits.  Part of this is due to the fact that since they are so beloved, their lines get inflated 1 to 3 points most weekends.  Also, that defense that magically showed up out of nowhere last year in the playoffs, usually can’t stop anything over the course of the regular season.

If you can get the Colts on the road and favored at -6 or less, feel free to take a few shots on them but other than that, stay away.  Bet on Mr. Tom Brady instead.  As you can see, even in his worst role (and I don’t mean his attempt at SNL acting) he’s winning at a 66% clip.  Peyton maybe the much better actor of the two, but Brady brings home the bacon every week!

manningbrady.jpg

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