I know, I know. I wasn’t very good last weekend going 1-3 ATS though I did think the Pack had a chance to blow out the Seahawks. The only pick coming through for us was the Giants! That was a great game and you all should have seen how much pacing Madison was doing the last 6 minutes of that affair. If it had not been for that missed field goal by Gotkowski the Pats would have covered. Where is Adam Vinaterri when you need him? So for the record we are an even 4-4 for the playoffs with only 3 games left. Vegas is really inflating the lines this year in the playoffs as this week we see the Pack open up at -7 and the Pats open at -14.5. I must say I went out and grabbed the Pack at -6.5 on Sunday night right after the lines came out. I’m glad I did that as now it is -7.5 and getting more and more expensive as the week goes on. The Pats came down to -13.5 and then with the news about Phillip Rivers it went up again to -14. Here’s a little breakdown of the games and the picks.
Giants +7.5 @ Packers
As I said earlier I took the Pack at -6.5. I like them at that line but nothing over. It’s going to be cold in Green Bay on Sunday with the temperature hovering around a very HOT 5 degrees and that doesn’t include the windchill. Eli will have a tough time of it in the cold as he always has and I believe the Giants DREAM Playoff Run has and will run out of gas! Their secondary is just too beat up to contend with all the weapons Favre has at his disposal and the Packers O-Line is one of the best in the NFL when it comes to protection. Favre hasn’t hung around the past few years to be this close to another Super Bowl trip and lose to a Manning, let alone Eli. Eli has been wonderful the past 3 games, but all good things come to an end. The Packers have a much better secondary than both the Bucs and the Cowboys. They HIT people back there and Al Harris is as good as anyone in one on one coverage. The Pack D-Line will get after Eli and force some bad throws early leading to a couple of short fields for Favre and Gant. I must say that I don’t think taking the Giants at +7.5 would be a bad bet at all, in fact there might be more value in that than the Packers at -7 and -120, but in the end I just think there will be too much offense from the Packers. The wear and tear of the last 2 road games played by the Giants will result in Big Plays given up by the Giants D come the second half and the Pack will come out on top by 10 points!
TAKE THE PACK -7! If it’s too expensive to buy down the 1/2 point from -7.5 then I would just pass on this game unless you are a TRUE GIANTS BELIEVER!
Chargers +14 @ Patriots
The Chargers roll into the AFC Title Game all banged up in Key positions. Rivers, L.T., and Gates are all screwed up. Despite all of them being tough and wanting to take this team to the Super Bowl they just won’t be nearly as effective as they would be if healthy. You can be assured the Pats will look to get in a few Good Licks on all of them when they start out on the field in the 1st quarter. I don’t expect Rivers to last more than 2 quarters at the very most and L.T. just won’t have the pop he needs to beat the Pats for long runs. By the way– Is it just me or is L.T. kinda over rated when it comes to the playoffs and HUGE games. He’s actually becoming a pretty inconsistent RB in my opinion.
The Patriots just have too many weapons for the Mentally Weak Chargers to defend. The Bolts are Mentally Weak and it will show up in this game at very key moments. The fact that they have already talked a little trash for this game goes to show you why the Pats and not the Bolts are on their way towards their 4 Super Bowl. Charger players like to think that kind of stuff gets lost after a few series in a game, but it doesn’t with the Pats. The Pats are a lot like Tony Soprano. When somebody says something about them that they don’t like or quite understand it broods in them for hours or days until finally they BLOW UP against that person and take their due revenge! This will happen Sunday as the Pats start to throw their weight around in the early 3rd quarter and go on to face the Pack in the Super Bowl.
TAKE THE PATS -13.5. Buy down the 1/2 point from 14.
So there it is sports betting freaks. Go out and enjoy the games tomorrow. I always have liked this day more than the Super Bowl to be honest with you!
Bet Ya–
ALIKAT
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