So here we go sports betting freaks! It’s Rivalry Week this Sunday. Steelers/Browns, Cowboys/Giants, Packers/Vikings, Eagles/Redskins, and on and on! Who you all got? I hope the games can live up to the fight earlier tonight between Miguel Cotto and Shane Mosley. Now that was a good boxing match for a change. Sorry this post is getting out late. I had to go out of town unexpectedly and just got back in tonight. Let’s get to the picks.
MONEY PICKS
1. Jags +5 @ Titans
This game is coming down to who can run the ball and defend the run better, right? Right, except I always see these kinds of games turning on a special teams play or a QB getting hot! I gotta feeling David Garrard will show up at some point in this game. He’s listed as questionable and will be a game time decision. The Titans have been on a roll of late, but I think the slipper is about to fall off. The Jags really need this game after dropping last week’s game against the Saints.
TAKE THE JAGS +5 points
2. Cowboys -1.5 @ Giants
I look at the Giants and I see a vastly improved team. The problem is they have done all of this improving against teams like the Falcons, Dolphins, Jets, and the 49ers. You play who you’re scheduled to play, but 4 wins against these teams is nothing like they are going to face with the Cowboys coming to town. Dallas runs the ball stronger in the red zone and defends the run better all over the field. As long as Tony Romo doesn’t get into his ‘Buffalo Bill Daze’ they should be able to win by a touchdown!
TAKE THE COWBOYS -1.5 points
3. Vikings +5.5 @ Packers
I know I know. I’m not supposed to do this, but it’s the Vikings/Packers! Lambeau field will be rocking and so will ‘Purple Jesus’ All Day Adrian Peterson. He’s going to go off for another 135 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Favre will throw 2 picks and the Vikes always play well in Green Bay. I’ve seen this line at +6 most of the week and it’s still at +6 on bodog so…
TAKE THE VIKINGS +6. Find a book that has them at +6, don’t go out and buy up from +5.5
4. Colts -3.5 @ Chargers
Both of these teams are limping into this game. The Colts are going to be without WR Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez, along with LT Tony Ugoh. On the Chargers side they will be without starting center Nick Hardwick, CB Quentin Jammer, and DE Luis Castillo. I think the injuries to the Chargers are more problematic for them than what the Colts have to deal with. Manning always loves playing in big time night games. Norv Turner is still Norv Turner STD!
TAKE THE COLTS -3. Buy down the 1/2 point from -3.5
5. Bears -3.5 @ Raiders
The Bears are coming off a bye week and if they are going to have any chance of getting back into this season they have to have this game. The Raiders are a little dinged up for this one with along with the fact that they just don’t have an answer at QB. I thought Culpepper was going to seize control of that earlier this season, but it just didn’t work out. Josh McCown is not the answer. Can anyone say “Bring in the Rook”!
TAKE THE BEARS -3. Buy down from -3.5
6. Falcons +3.5 @ Panthers
I know I’m slumming when I put the Falcons on the Money Pick board regardless of who they’re playing and by how many points they’re getting. They had the Panthers the first time this year until Deangelo Hall started thinking he was Deion Sanders. The Panthers are going to be playing most of this game with Matt Moore at QB! Unless Old Man Vinny can get a good shot of cortisone before game time this has the makings of an upset, even with Joey Harrington at the helm for the Falcons. A small play here!
TAKE THE FALCONS +4. Buy up 1/2 point from +3.5
THE REST OF THE BUNCH OR GAMES I’D PLAY IF I HAD A GUN TO MY HEAD OR JUST TOO MANY SHOTS OF JACK DANIELS
1. Bills -3 @ Dolphins
I really want to play on the Bills I found myself saying earlier this week. I then slapped myself and got a drink. The Bills have come along nicely since their injury ravaged beginning, but they still haven’t unhooked their offense and you gotta figure the Dolphins are due to Win at least 1 game this year at home.
TAKE THE BILLS -3
2. Rams +10.5 @ Saints
The Rams are finally getting back Stephen Jackson this week. Problem is it’s a little late for supper. The Rams are just playing for pride and chicks at this point. I mean you gotta play for something don’t you? I think the Saints should take this game by at least 4 points, but…
TAKE THE RAMS +10.5
3. Browns +10 @ Steelers
I learned my lesson with the Steelers as Double Digit favorites at home for the last time on Monday Night. I took the Ravens and lost just like I did with the 49ers earlier in the year. Everyone thinks this game will be closer than the spread and I just don’t! The Steelers are playing the best football around outside of Pat/Colt Land and the Browns, though much better, have racked up these victories against less than stellar teams. Sunday they will run into a car wreck in LB James Harrison!
TAKE THE STEELERS -9.5. Buy down 1/2 point from -10
4. Bengals +3.5 @ Ravens
I want so badly to play this game! You would think the Bengals could get something going on offense now that they have WR Chris Henry back, but something is just so far off with these guys. I know they have been ravaged by the injury bug on Defense, but come on Palmer O, get the FUCK going! The Ravens can’t score and Steve McNair looks worse than some JV QB’s from Missouri. The Ravens will be without Samari Rolle again and probably Chris Mcalister. I gotta go…
TAKE THE BENGALS +4. Buy the 1/2 point up from +3.5
5. Eagles +3 @ Redskins
McNabb has one last shot at saving his reputation on Sunday. The problem is the Eagles have many other worries than just McNabb. No receivers, shitty O-Line play, coaching decisions, and an overrated Defense! The Redskins will probably be without Santana Moss which will hurt, but they have the overall stronger team and Clinton Portis is starting to look like the Portis of a couple of years ago.
TAKE THE REDSKINS -2.5. If you’re going to play this game I would buy down to -2.5 from the current -3. This game looked better early in the week when it was at -2.5 and before you knew the extent of injuries of Moss and Randle El!
6. Broncos +3 @ Chiefs
This game could just be ugly any way you slice it. Johnson is out for the Chiefs. We don’t know how bad that ankle is for Cutler. The Broncos look like hell right now and the Chiefs without Johnson will have a hard time scoring.
TAKE THE BRONCOS +3
7. Lions +1.5 @ Cardinals
The Lions are starting to feel the groove that Jon Kitna had promised them. Now we’ll finally see ‘Who God Truly Loves’. Will it be Kurt Warner or Jon Kitna? The Republican National Committee should send operatives down to Arizona immediately! I’m going to go with…
TAKE THE CARDS -1.5 at Home. God chooses Kurt Warner because he doesn’t want to deal with the wrath of Kurt’s Wife!
8. 49ers +9.5 @ Seahawks
This is another game that could get real ugly. It looks as if Shaun Alexander will be missing for the Seahawks. That shouldn’t matter too much since he has been missing all year. The 49ers can’t get anything going this year on offense after being crowned ‘Team on the Rise’ by everybody, including myself and Madison, in the sporting world. Maybe Alex Smith should cheat on the 49ers and have a little fling with Norv ‘STD’ Turner down in some oceanside motel next week just to get the juices flowing again!
TAKE THE 49ERS +10 points. Buy the 1/2 point up from +9.5
So there you have it boys and girls. Sorry for it being so late and all. I’m going to skip the coffee tomorrow and head straight for the Screwdrivers. Nothing like a little O.J. and Vodka to get a girl pumped up for the Vikings vs Packers! Good luck to all you sports betting freaks and we’ll talk to you on Monday!
Bet Ya–
ALIKAT









2 Comments
Comment by Chimpanzee Rage on 2007-11-13
Another good week. Way to go, good picks. Although i feel like the buying of points is a -EV play. You’re giving up money to be won by hedging this way. Simply put, if you dont think a team will cover the spread given, just bet the other team. Why give the house more money? Thoughts?
Comment by Alikat on 2007-11-13
Chimpanzee Rage–
Thanks for stopping by! I completely understand what you are saying by giving the house more money and spending more to safeguard your bet. I wrestle with this a lot every week. My rationale is I get very pissed off when I see a lot of 1/2 point hooks on a given Sunday (3 1/2) is the worst I can think of. The majority of NFL games come down to 3-4 points. To get your handicapping so good that you come down on the Right Side when it’s 3 or 4 points is just too much Risk I feel. You already deal with such small margins of victory in handicapping the NFL to begin with. If I see a game at +3 1/2 and I like the team getting the points I may not buy up at all, but there are so many games that end up at 4 point margins that you can have a good bet in place and still wind up losing. If I have to spend $10 more dollars per $100 to make sure that I at least get a push (given the game falls the way you expect) I will take that risk. Maybe it’s a little riskier but I have done well with that philosophy over the past couple of years. I don’t do it all the time or even the majority of the time, but when I see a lot of games sitting on those (key lines of 3-4 with a bunch of Hooks on them) I will get the line I want even if I have to buy it! Sometimes you just really feel like the risk on the team you’re buying points on is better than betting on the other team outright even though you’re giving up more money.
I know I’m a little different than most when it comes to this buying of points and I’m still learning every year whether this is something I should be doing less of. As my handicapping gets better and more accurate in terms of point totals for each team I will be doing less of this. I just feel like I’ll take my Hedge of Winning the Game and risk a little more by buying a 1/2 point than taking the Line that Vegas gives me and seeing a Push or outright loss. Hope this helps in explaining where I’m coming from on this. Would love more of your in depth thoughts on this if you have any.
Later–
Alikat