So here we go sports betting fans - the first Sunday of the 2007 Season! Get your grill cleaned up and get out to the grocery store for brats, burgers, and booze!
Alikat, our resident sports betting expert chick, is going to give you a little breakdown of the teams playing, their respective lines, and whether or not she thinks you should place a bet on them. If she thinks it’s a good bet and calls it out, then those are the games we’re recording for the Hot Chicks Hot Picks season’s statistics or her “win/loss” column, if you will.
We’re still not quite sure what to do with her Saints pick on Thursday but since we’re girls, we might be taking the famous “how many guys have you been with?” approach, as in we’ll tell how many boyfriends we’ve had, NOT how many men we’ve hooked up with.
Okay - just a couple of quick notes as we begin the season:
1. Go easy the first few weeks of the season. This is the toughest part of the season as you are trying to gauge how good these teams actually are. This is the reason the pre-season is mostly meaningless. Nobody really knows what they have on their respective squads until you get into the games that count! It’s not uncommon to hang around the 40%-50% winning mark during the first month of the year. Trust me, it gets a little easier to decipher teams after a few weeks. With that being said, bet a little lighter than you will during October through January.
2. Play mostly underdogs! This is a golden rule throughout the season of most accomplished sports bettors. The early part of the year is when every team is trying to find their make up and defenses are usually ahead of offenses. The final scores usually come down to 3-4 points anyhow throughout the year so you should naturally be looking at going with more underdogs than favorites in the month of September. I do make exceptions for favorites with very good defenses, quarterbacks, a history of doing well against said team or in said stadium, and if the favorites are giving away no more than 3-4 points.
3. Study these games as closely as you can. I know not all of you have the whole DirecTv Sunday Ticket Package, but when you watch the games you do, watch closely to pick up nuances that the average sports fan is missing. Knowing your team’s nuances and offensive and defensive packages will only help you in your sports betting as the year rolls on.
With that said, here are my week one insights:
Broncos -3 at Bills
The Broncos had trouble with their defense during the pre-season, but Mike Shanahan is determined to get back to the top of the AFC. He’s got to rely on a second year quarterback in Jay Cutler who should get better as the year rolls on.
The Bills have some good offensive weapons in J.P. Losman and the rookie Marshawn Lynch but their defense can be overwhelmed. The Bills usually play very tough at home, but the Broncos know they have to keep pace early with the Chargers to have a chance at the AFC West Title.
This game could go either way with not enough evidence of either team being able to shut down somebody to put money on them.
If I had to pick I would go with the Broncos but it’s just not a good game to play in my opinion.
PASS
Eagles -3 at Packers
Donovan McNabb is back from his knee injury looking good during the summer games. I like the Philly D in this one going against Brett Favre and a very inexperienced running back crew. Favre just doesn’t know what he’s going to get from his running backs in this game what with all the wild blitzes the Philly D will throw at him.
On the other side, I think Philly could be looking past this game as they have owned Green Bay the last few years and have the Redskins coming to town next Sunday. The Pack have a pretty good D of their own and if they can stuff the running of Brian Westbrook and get a couple of big plays it’s a good chance they’ll win.
If I had to pick I’d go Eagles.
PASS
Falcons +3 at Vikings
Old Joey Harrington is going to take his first step in replacing Michael Vick at The Metrodome, a place he’s never played well. I think the Falcons will have a hard time putting up much yardage on the excellent Vikings run defense. They will have a few shots against the secondary if Joey gets some time in the pocket.
The Vikings will be able to run the ball very well against the Falcon D if QB Tavaris Jackson can complete a few passes early in the first half. If he stumbles, then it will take a big play by rookie RB Adrian Petersen to lift them out of their offensive woes dating back to last year’s squad.
If I had to pick I’d go Vikings.
PASS
Dolphins +3 at Redskins
The Dolphins will try to get their anemic offense back on track in Trent Green’s first start for his new team. I think Trent is on his way out with the concussion from last year still affecting his play. The running game of the Dolphins is okay at best with Ronnie “What have you done to deserve a #4 pick” Brown still waiting to bust out and become a stud.
The Redskins Defense looks like a better version than the strong one they had in 2005. It has the speed and ferocious hitting ability you like to see in the NFL. Quarterback Jason Campbell is a star waiting for his entrance and I think this is the year you’re going to see him blossom. He’s got two excellent running backs in Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts which always make life easier for a young QB.
Yeah, the Dolphins Defense is pretty damn good but it’s getting old and defensive end Jason Taylor topped out last year in his play.
PLAY ON THE REDSKINS AT -3!
If it moves to -3.5 PASS!
Titans +7 at Jaguars
Here comes the full-time David Garrard as starting QB experiment again. How did that work out for you last year Jack? Garrard is a back-up and a good one at that, but he’s not NFL Starter material for 16 games. The Jags are very tough at home early in the season and they have a great running game with Fred Taylor and Jones-Drew. The Titans are looking to continue their NFL best ATS record of 11-5 last year with an upset to start of 2007. The Titans still don’t have any big time receivers for Vince Young to throw to yet and he’s still going to have to make a bunch of plays with his legs. Lendale White should break out some in his second year at tailback if he can lay off the cheeseburgers during the week. I want to go with the Titans to stay within a few points of the Jags, but I just have not seen enough of their offense to make me feel good about that. On the other side, the thought of trusting any amount of money, when you are laying 7 points, in the hands of David Garrard is ridiculous. If I had to pick I’d go Titans +7 and only +7 but… PASS
Panthers +1 at Rams
This game is a complete toss-up and probably the hardest one to handicap. They both have very good offenses from time to time with the consistent edge going to the Rams. The Panthers have the better Defense although the Rams are hoping this is the year they start getting their own D in shape. QB edge I would go with Bulger and the Rams as well as being at home. John Fox does very well in the road underdog role though (insert story of coaches from a week ago). Just sit back and enjoy this game. If I had to pick I’d go Rams. PASS
Chiefs +3 at Texans
I liked this game back when it was Texans -1. I would have gone with the Texans as I think they are going to surprise a lot of people this year and score some upsets. The Chiefs are just not going to be very good this year despite having RB Larry Johnson. I see this game coming down to a big D stand or a field goal with seconds remaining. Either way I can’t trust my money with either of these two teams at this point spread. PASS
Steelers +4.5 at Browns
I like this game at Steelers +4 and nothing more. Therefore if you decide to play this game I would suggest you buy that 1/2 point and get it down to +4. The Steelers are due back this year with a defense that looked great during the pre-season and Ben wanting to get back to the Super Bowl again. The Steelers have won the last the last 7 games ATS vs the Browns including the last 4 at Cleveland. The Steelers have also won their last 4 season openers. The Browns will give them a good 1st half, but then I see them wearing down. Derek Anderson or Charlie Frye will make a key mistake against that blitzing D the Steelers bring late in the game to seal this game for the Steelers. PLAY ON STEELERS AT +4. BUY THE HALF POINT!
Patriots -6 at Jets
I usually like the Pats at anything under -7 points. This game in N.Y. though has given the Pats problems over the last couple of years. Without a Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour, and a totally healthy Randy Moss the Pats might struggle some to cover this spread. I don’t thing the Jets are going to win this game outright but I gotta feeling they may make it more uncomfortable than Pats fans would like. I still can’t go the other way and play the Jets because I don’t think RB Thomas Jones is completely healthy yet and QB Chad Pennington didn’t look good at all in the pre-season. If I had to pick I’d go with the Pats. PASS
Bucaneers -6 at Seahawks
The Bucs look to restore some shine to their organization after the last couple of years. The Seahawks are a veteran team that knows they only got another year or two to make another run at the Super Bowl. I like the Bucs to keep this close for awhile and with Jeff Garcia at QB you never know what might happen. The Seahawks look like they have improved some on the D-side of the ball and with a healthy Hasselback and Alexander in the backfield they should move the ball well at home. If this game was at -4 Seahawks I’d go with it. PASS
Bears +6 at Chargers
Norv Turner is back at Head Coach for the Chargers and that scares me as a sports betting analyst. He’s a good assistant, but not a Head kind of guy. The Bears have one of the best D’s in the whole league and I like them getting 6 points for a opening day game along with the fact they are 4-0 ATS vs the Chargers the last 4 meetings. If Rex can not make too many big mistakes, a BIG IF I KNOW, the Bears are simply too good on D to not keep this game close to the end. PLAY ON THE BEARS AT -6!
Lions +2.5 at Raiders
I liked this game much much better a week ago when you could get the Raiders at -1 to -1.5
I liked it even better when it looked like a sure thing that Daunte Culpepper had won the starting QB job in Oakland. I still don’t know what Lane Kiffin is thinking if he does indeed go with Josh McKown as his starter in week 1. I still have not been shown anything by these overhyped Lions and until they prove me wrong I’ll shoot my mouth off about them. At this spread I get real anxious though as the Raiders have shown an ability to lose ATS in games they should win over the last 3 years. I say… PASS NOT at this Point Spread!
Giants +6 at Cowboys
The Giants and Cowboys usually play each other very tough and this being an opening day game I expect the same. I would love to take the points and pick the Giants, but I don’t trust my money in the hands of Eli Manning at this time in his career. I don’t think the Cowboys can play a consistent enough game for four quarters to justify them covering by 6 points. If I had to play somebody here it would be the Giants, but… PASS
There are the Sunday match-ups boys and girls! I’ll be back Sunday Night with my Monday Night Special! Stay tuned!
Bet Ya–
ALIKAT
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